Friday, September 6, 2013

And Down She Goes- Price/Volume Diffusion Index Dips Below 50

Just a brief update for you, the price/volume diffusion index (PVDI) has broken the 50 demarcation level, with the PVDI falling to 46.7. This reading suggests that the price and volume action on the S&P 500 has swung more in favor of supply.

In of itself, a PVDI below the 50 demarcation suggests a heightened risk environment, but not necessarily lower future equity market prices. The historical performance since the early 1950's and under various scenarios following a sub-50 PVDI show mixed objective results. Fact is, price volatility and the risk of lower prices does appear higher under similar past results, but the objective data is just not strong enough to suggest a clear indication one way or another.  In any event, it is probably good idea to review your portfolio holdings, position sizes, and any stop loss/limit orders to reposition yourself for a potential of an increase risk environment.

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