Thursday, August 7, 2014

Gold Complex Trade- A Positive Risk/Reward Set Up

Every now and then I will present to you the timing and risk-based modes I employ to assist in my decision making in the gold and precious metal investment complex, sometimes to highlight a trade, my thinking as it concerns the metal markets, general trends in the precious metal complex, and what not. Now, we are starting to see a positive bull confirmation in the results.

Over the last few months when I have spoke to the models, you must have thought I have sounded like a broken record, as the models have generally remained in negative territory (which for any new reader, a negative indication on the models suggest positive future price performance in the precious metal equities) It no different presently, as the three model calculations I employ hover around -1 to various degrees. Just look below.

6-Month Model, Present results; -0.8

1-Year Model, -0.7

Long-Term Model, -1

What has changed is that the risk model has flipped from a negative (here negative numbers indicate worse future performance relative to less negative and positive results) indication to just over the 0 demarcation.  Again, look at the below chart.

Risk Model- 0

These results are suggesting investors should position themselves in a positive investment stance in the precious metal complex. Although I do have concern that present geo-political  tensions will add to volatility, I also think that the turn in the risk model and positive buy signals in the timing models in conjunction with positive techincal indications in the precious metal shares (for instance, see RGLD) suggest a positive risk/reward environment in the metal investment complex.

In Principle

Written and Illustrated by Steve Ditko, the co-creater of Spider Man and other marvel characters. This short strip resonates with me, highlighting the evils and morality in terms and issues like sacrifice, taxes, social need, etc.

A Conversation With Eric Sprott and Outlook for Precious Metals

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

There Is No Alternative

I may disagree with Mr. Trennert on many of his points (for instance, the supposed theme of US energy renaissance/independence a la shale oil/gas), but that does not mean the thoughts are not worthwhile. For instance, the thoughts around the idea that everything companies do with their cash will be accretive to earnings.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Deflation First- Then Inflation

At least that is if you measure inflation via aggregate prices, as most do. A worthwhile look in to the relationship between aggregate prices, currency creation, the velocity of money, and more.

And the rest of the presentation can be found here.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

The Collapse of the American Imperium with David Stockman

To open up a little, I feel like I have been posting far too many videos lately. And actually, I am contemplating where I want to take this blog and what value my experience can provide you and others. In the meantime, I thought this was a insightful interview with Stockman, concerning the growing strife that is Ukraine in regards to the US imperial aspirations.