Wednesday, June 26, 2013

What I Am Reading/Watching 6/26/13


Are utilities setting up for a bull run? - probably early but interesting dynamics.


A Dangerous Defense of Austrian Economics

Pettis is thinking a bank run in China is possible, but no Lehman moment due availability of credit.

   That said, investors are scared of a possible Lehman Moment in China


Although a chunk of the world's long bonds are under going steepening events (US, UK, Germany, Japan, Aussie, and others), China's yield curve is inverted

The Skyscraper Index/Omen coming soon to New York?

Risk is percolating
FRED Graph

 Behavioral Portfolio Management

Mises, totalitarianism, central banking, the business cycle

You asked about the euro and its future. The first thing we need to keep in mind is that the euro and the US dollar are currencies subject to monetary central planning. They are monopoly monies controlled and issued by central banks. Their quantity is determined by the decisions of the monetary central planners who oversee them; they influence the amount of "reserves" banks have for lending purposes, and through this control over the supply of money in the banking system can manipulate a variety of interest rates, especially in the short run.

As a consequence, financial markets do not work like real markets. We cannot be sure what the amount of real savings may be in the society to support real and sustainable investment and capital formation. We cannot know what the "real cost" of borrowing should be, since interest rates are not determined by actual, private sector savings and investment decisions. And, therefore, there is no guarantee that the amount of investments undertaken and their time horizons are compatible with the available resources not also being demanded and used for more immediate consumer goods production in the society.

This is why countries around the world periodically experience booms and busts, inflations and recessions − not because of some inherent instabilities or "irrationalities" in financial markets, but because of monetary central planning through central banking that does not allow market-based financial intermediation to develop and work as it could and would in a real free-market setting.

Mauboussin talks investing, active management, behavioral decision making

Hostage negotiation techniques that can get you what you want.

Take a technology sabbatical.


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