The following a two-fer on the chances of the global economic recession. As I have said here a few times, I think the chances of a recession are a lot higher than most believe it to be, at least using the current data. First, we are seeing anecdotal evidence that the payroll tax increase is starting to bite. Additionally, I saw more anecdotal evidence from a USA Today survey (sorry, no link and yes I know not the most scientific) that stated most were looking to use any tax refund to pay off debt or save, pointing to the concern in the American public's outlook for the future. Then you have this analysis from Political Calculations showing that the cut in dividends is flashing a warning signal about economic growth. Finally, I have two analyses looking at stall-speed GDP growth and the acceleration/deceleration of employment and how they relate to the future GDP growth. In any event, here are some other views.
Discussion about a slowdown in the global economy.
Discussion about a slowdown in the global economy.
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