Monday, September 10, 2012

AAPL rally dying on the vine

I had previously mentioned the historic track record of stock price performances for companies that achieve mega-cap status (hint- they underperform, more here). With that said, I thought I would provide a quick technical update on AAPL's price chart. My opinion is that the rally in AAPL's shares is now dying on the vine. On a three-year chart....

.... the divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) and the MACD are clearly obvious, as compared to the price trend. To me, this suggests that AAPL's shares are in a late stage rally and may be set for a pullback. A pullback in AAPL shares would likely take the price first to the $500 price level. The next level of resistance would be just above the $420 price point, filling the gap that opened in January 2012.

So will the impending announcement of the iPhone5 be a catalyst to send the shares in one direction or another or will AAPL's shares flatline? We shall soon see. Again, I mention Apple's share not because I have any skin in the game, but make mention of the stock because as AAPL goes so does the market.

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