So How Can You Make More Accurate Predictions?

This comes via Barking Up the Wrong Tree. Some good advice here.

First, look at the event you’re trying to predict and take the time to think about how much skill is involved vs luck. This will determine what evidence you should focus on.

Via The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing:

When we make predictions, we often fail to recognize the existence of luck, and as a consequence we dwell too much on the specific evidence, especially recent evidence. This also makes it tougher to judge performance. Once something has happened, our natural inclination is to come up with a cause to explain the effect. The problem is that we commonly twist, distort, or ignore the role that luck plays in our successes and failures. Thinking explicitly about how luck influences our lives can help offset that cognitive bias.

Whether skill or luck is more central will determine whether you should lean on general statistics, or whether you should strongly consider the specifics of this particular event.
Via The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing:

When skill plays the prime role in determining what happens, you can rely on specific evidence… In activities where luck is more important, the base rate should guide your prediction.

The takeaway:

• When luck is the bigger factor (like playing the lottery) go with the statistics: You have a 1 in 10 gazillion chance of winning. Ignore the specifics; just because it’s you playing and you’re playing your favorite number doesn’t mean much.

• When skill is the bigger factor (a fist fight) ignore the general statistics and look at the specifics of the individual case (it’s Batman in the fist fight and Batman always wins.)