Barry Ritholtz always finds the great pieces...... a thought piece by Michael Mauboussin. Dovetails nicely with my post on making more accurate predictions.
- Raise your awareness: Incomplete information and lots of uncertainty leads to poor outcomes
- Put yourself in the shoes of others: Consider the point of view or experience of other people
- Recognise the role of skill and luck: Sorting skill from luck is essential for evaluating outcomes
- Get feedback: Maintaining a decision-making journal allows you to audit your decisions
- Create a checklist: It will alert you to think clearly about what you might advertently overlook
- Perform a premortem: Assume that the decision has failed; look for reasons why
- Know what you can’t know: In decisions that involve systems with many interacting parts, causal links are frequently unclear
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