Thursday, January 3, 2013

The FOMC Speaks and Gold Tanks, Opportunity May Just Ahead?

The FOMC releases the minutes from their latest meeting and it sent gold traders running scared. Both the price of the yellow metal and the Spider Gold Trust (ticker GLD) declined more than 1% on elevated volume.

I will not report the entire FOMC minutes here- but they are worth the read and can be found here- but this paragraph is what I think worried investors.

In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, all members but one judged that continued provision of monetary accommodation was warranted in order to support further progress toward the Committee's goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judged that such accommodation should be provided in part by continuing to purchase MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and by purchasing longer-term Treasury securities, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month, following the completion of the maturity extension program at the end of the year. The Committee also maintained its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS and decided that, starting in January, it will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. While almost all members thought that the asset purchase program begun in September had been effective and supportive of growth, they also generally saw that the benefits of ongoing purchases were uncertain and that the potential costs could rise as the size of the balance sheet increased. Various members stressed the importance of a continuing assessment of labor market developments and reviews of the program's efficacy and costs at upcoming FOMC meetings. In considering the outlook for the labor market and the broader economy, a few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013, while a few others emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases. Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet. One member viewed any additional purchases as unwarranted. 

It sounds like their may be some growing dissent on the board and it is not just Lacker. 

This may just be the event may just turn out to be what gold and gold stock investors, this one anyway, has been waiting for. Any growing expectation that the QE program may end sooner than expected may shake out the weak hands and provide astute buyers a chance to invest at better prices.

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