This is from Krugman New York Times blog....
I wonder is Krugman realizes that in economics there are no free lunches, just people and companies willing to take risk for potential reward. I also wonder if he has fully thought through the process of the Fed pulling back much on the monetary base it created and the major market disruptions that would likely create. Maybe I am being short-sited, but I really cannot see how the Fed can reduce its balance by $2 to $3 trillion, if the Fed's balance sheet does increase to an estimated $4 trillion, without some economic pain.
But leaving the debt ceiling on one side, isn’t it true that since
spending can currently be financed by Fed money printing, we shouldn’t
care at all about the notional debt owed to the Fed? Alas, no.
It’s true that printing money isn’t at all inflationary under current conditions
— that is, with the economy depressed and interest rates up against the
zero lower bound. But eventually these conditions will end. At that
point, to prevent a sharp rise in inflation the Fed will want to pull
back much of the monetary base it created in response to the crisis,
which means selling off the Federal debt it bought. So even though right
now that debt is just a claim by one more or less governmental agency
on another governmental agency, it will eventually turn into debt held
by the public.
We are living in weird economic times, where many
of the usual rules don’t apply and there are big free lunches to be had.
But not everything is a free lunch, even now. Sorry.
I wonder is Krugman realizes that in economics there are no free lunches, just people and companies willing to take risk for potential reward. I also wonder if he has fully thought through the process of the Fed pulling back much on the monetary base it created and the major market disruptions that would likely create. Maybe I am being short-sited, but I really cannot see how the Fed can reduce its balance by $2 to $3 trillion, if the Fed's balance sheet does increase to an estimated $4 trillion, without some economic pain.
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