Sometimes the wait is unbearable, but I keep reminding myself the timing is not right. First off, the timing models remain in a moderate buy zone. I would much prefer a stronger buy indication before jumping in feet first. A moderate buy on the timing models would not be a problem if the markets (be it gold trading or the gold mining stocks) have shown a sign of significant strength. They still remain weak on the upside. This leaves me recommending to remain on the sidelines awaiting a better entry point, or at the very least a slow buy in on weakness with a small percentage of investable assets.
As stated, the timing models remain in a moderate buy range. One caveat to this assessment is that I am modeling a slight pullback in the money supply for the first two weeks of 2013 (remember, money supply is reported with a two week lag and I estimate the current money supply figures using a combination of seasonal factors, growth rates, trend growth, and Federal Reserve's balance sheet.) This pullback is based mainly on seasonal factors, which shows a draw down in the money supply in the first weeks of the year, only partially offset by Fed's quantitative easing program. If the Fed's asset purchase program more than offsets the seasonal factors, then the model results may be underestimated. With that said, here are the current timing models.
3-Month Model, Current estimate -1.3
1-Year Model, Current estimate -1.4
6-Month Model, Current estimate -1.4
As stated, the timing models remain in a moderate buy range. One caveat to this assessment is that I am modeling a slight pullback in the money supply for the first two weeks of 2013 (remember, money supply is reported with a two week lag and I estimate the current money supply figures using a combination of seasonal factors, growth rates, trend growth, and Federal Reserve's balance sheet.) This pullback is based mainly on seasonal factors, which shows a draw down in the money supply in the first weeks of the year, only partially offset by Fed's quantitative easing program. If the Fed's asset purchase program more than offsets the seasonal factors, then the model results may be underestimated. With that said, here are the current timing models.
3-Month Model, Current estimate -1.3
1-Year Model, Current estimate -1.4
6-Month Model, Current estimate -1.4
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