Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Watching AAPL- some distribution but still not a short

I have said it before, as Apple (ticker AAPL) goes so goes the market. I continue to think that the returns on AAPL's share will peter out over time, as the company's inclusion into the ultra-megacap stock universe makes it more likely that the law of large numbers takes affect. I have mentioned this in past posts, and highlight my research on ultra-megacap stock performance versus the indexes.

Now I want to stress that AAPL shares are not a short nor am I recommending it as such. That said, there appears to be some distribution coming into the market following the stock hitting the $700 level.


The distribution, in my opinion, is likely a result of some profit taking and the dents in the "innovation" engine following the mapping snafu. AAPL's shares have broken the 50-day moving average and the volume has shown some signs of expansion on the downside. That said, I think we will need more downside volume to suggest more selling is in the offing. For instance, the stock traded down in yesterday's trading on 22.78 million shares, trading into the high of April 10. Volume characteristics in Monday's trading, in my opinion, are still not there. On April 10, AAPL traded 31.77  million shares versus the 22.78 million yesterday. We will need more volume on the downside to convince me that any downtrend is real.

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