Thursday, October 25, 2012

Natural gas storage up, cold winter needed for further declines.

The Energy Information Administration reported today that natural gas storage injection was 67 Bcf, matching the Street's estimates. Total gas in storage totaled 3,843 Bcf for the week ended Oct 19, resulting in a differential of 163 Bcf greater than the 5-year average. The differential ticked up by 10 Bcf versus last week.

I think the downside trend in differential is definitely slowing up here, as compared to the declines in the differential seen earlier in the year.



Although the tick up is hard to see in the above chart, it more pronounced in the 12-week slope of differential that I track here.



I continue to believe that further downside in the storage rate differential will be predicated on winter temperatures and a corresponding increase in heating degree days.

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