Shadow housing inventory declining

Soberlook.com posted an interesting piece two weekends ago concerning the improving health of the U.S. housing market, which can be found here. Here is an excerpt.

After a period of false starts and unproductive legislative delays, Americans have become fairly efficient at clearing out delinquent home inventory. This is what makes the US so different from Japan for example. At this pace the so-called shadow inventory drag on the housing market will diminish rapidly in the next couple of years.

What stood out to me was the following chart from J.P. Morgan showing the estimated number of homes in the shadow inventory.

This chart made me instantly think of the following chart from CSFB, which has made the rounds for years now, showing the monthly mortgage resets from 2007 through 2016.



These charts say to me that the supply of distressed homes have declined significantly and will likely continue to do, albeit at a reduced rates through 2015. I think this indicates a rise in housing prices, as the supply of distressed homes is reduced. That said, I would still expect price appreciation to be anchored by the supply impact of potential sellers or homeowners current on their mortgages that are waiting for a price rebound to sell.