I have been bad, and have not (at least not publicly) generated or discussed my gold and precious metal stock timing models on a regular weekly basis. The fact is, we are not really seeing much going on in the models....... or gold stocks for that matter. Yes, I know there have been plenty of +/- 10% moves in the gold and precious stocks depending on your initial reference point. Looking at multi-month period however, gold and the gold stock indexes have largely traded within a fairly large range since May or June of this year. I guess if you are a better trader than I am, you could take advantage of this volatility- hell at the very least use some straggle or strangle strategies in your trading to capture the volatility bet. But I am not one to play that game and as for options, I have some restrictions on what I can do there. I would much rather pick longer-term entry and exit points.
This is what I think we are seeing in the precious metal complex, a long-term entry point. As long as central banks continue to print, the long-term viability of fiat currencies will be called into question. Questioning the validity of currency leads one to gold. I would much prefer to accumulate the metal and gold stocks at this juncture than try to play the volatility for a quick few bucks one way or another.
In any event, the following presents the latest timing model results with the present calculation as compared to the month ago calculation.
6-Month, -0.4 vs. -0.3
1-year, -1.1 vs. -1
2-year, -1.7 vs. -1.6
Risk measure, Positive
All three timing models remain below the 0 demarcation, indicating a higher likelihood of better-than-average forward returns. Additionally, the risk measure remains positive. Positive risk measurements in the past have 'helped' improve the overall performance metrics of the simple model results, essentially by avoiding the falling knives.
This is what I think we are seeing in the precious metal complex, a long-term entry point. As long as central banks continue to print, the long-term viability of fiat currencies will be called into question. Questioning the validity of currency leads one to gold. I would much prefer to accumulate the metal and gold stocks at this juncture than try to play the volatility for a quick few bucks one way or another.
In any event, the following presents the latest timing model results with the present calculation as compared to the month ago calculation.
6-Month, -0.4 vs. -0.3
1-year, -1.1 vs. -1
2-year, -1.7 vs. -1.6
Risk measure, Positive
All three timing models remain below the 0 demarcation, indicating a higher likelihood of better-than-average forward returns. Additionally, the risk measure remains positive. Positive risk measurements in the past have 'helped' improve the overall performance metrics of the simple model results, essentially by avoiding the falling knives.
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