Thursday, August 1, 2013

Failure of The S&P 500

Despite Bernanke et al. stating the continuation of the $85 billion/month bond buying program, the S&P 500 failed on price in yesterday's trading. This is the seventh trading day that the market could not push into higher prices.


Notice that the technical internals are weakening as equity prices push higher. The RSI has diverged from the price trend. The same goes for the MACD. This is while the accumulation/distribution has been in decline, confirming the fall off in volume and lack of demand at higher prices.

More so, yesterday's trading action shows a rejection of higher prices, and indicates growing concern by traders and investors. The intraday chart of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) plainly shows this.


Notice the the acceleration in volume late in the trading day, corresponding with the sell off on the SPY. This is institutional selling, noting that a preponderance of large institutions will trade within the first and last half hour to 15 minutes of the trading day.  Late day trading yesterday suggests operators are juicing prices to draw in other investors in order to roll out positions.

This morning, equity futures indicate a higher open this morning, on optimism for better economic growth, I think this confidence is misplaced and that probability of recessionary conditions remains high.

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