As I stated in previous weeks in this column, we have witnessed some odd, outsized moves in the M2 money supply relative to the historic weekly seasonal averages. If this means anything significant remains to be seen. That said, the increased volatility and a possibly pull forward of money supply gyrations in certain weeks raises the potential of a misrepresentation in the timing models. At this juncture, I am not modeling out M2 money supply for any time period further than the two weeks between the reporting period and the present. Remember that money supply is reported with a two week lag. Additionally, I intend to mute and anchor the money supply forecasts to the most recent reported figures until the more typical seasonal fluctuations return.
With that, the gold/precious metal stock timing models continue to indicate that the equities should be purchased. This as the models pullback from the strong buy demarcation at or below -2 but as the slope of the indicators remains positive. Currently, the 1-year model calculation is a -1.6 while the 6-month model calculation has worsened to -1. That said, the 2-year model calculation remains below the -2 demarcation at -2.1. The latest model results are presented below.
6-month model, -1
1-year model, -1.6
2-year model, -2.1
Although both the 1-year and 6-month models have worsened from the -2 demarcation seen just a few weeks ago, the slope of the 6-month indicator remains positive,
The positive slope in conjunction of model indicators below zero suggest that gold/precious metal shares are set for future appreciation.
With that, the gold/precious metal stock timing models continue to indicate that the equities should be purchased. This as the models pullback from the strong buy demarcation at or below -2 but as the slope of the indicators remains positive. Currently, the 1-year model calculation is a -1.6 while the 6-month model calculation has worsened to -1. That said, the 2-year model calculation remains below the -2 demarcation at -2.1. The latest model results are presented below.
6-month model, -1
1-year model, -1.6
2-year model, -2.1
Although both the 1-year and 6-month models have worsened from the -2 demarcation seen just a few weeks ago, the slope of the 6-month indicator remains positive,
The positive slope in conjunction of model indicators below zero suggest that gold/precious metal shares are set for future appreciation.
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