Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Regardless of My Opinion... Equities Likely to Go Higher Short-term

My opinion is that most of what we are seeing in the markets is a reflection of monetary manipulation by the Federal Reserve. At some point, this game will end, the music will stop, and many investors will be 'surprised' at the severity of the decline. This is a game I rather not play and I have and continue to pair back my equity market exposures.

That being said, I would not be surprised if the market continues to trend higher here. Momentum alone can probably carry the day and momentum is probably all the explanation I need. However, I would be remiss without going into some greater explanation.

First off, the Price/Volume Diffusion Index (PVDI) on the S&P 500 is bouncing off the 50 demarcation and is presently just about 53.


 With the summation index (not shown) still rising and the PVDI remaining above 50, the market probably will track higher.

More so, the higher risk equities (using the high beta name in Powershares High Beta ETF- ticker SPHB) are now participating in the rally. This is evidenced by the the relative price analysis of the SPHB versus the SPLV or the Powershares Low Volatility ETF.



These provide decent indications that equities still have room to run.

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