Just a quick update on the latest timing models results. There has not been much change in the model results since I last discussed the state of the gold market(s) and the timing models a little over a week ago. The price of gold is bouncing around the mid $1,400 level while the Phily Gold/Silver Miner Index (ticker XAU) has been trading with a range of $105 to $122 for about two week now.
Looking at money supply, non-seasonally adjusted money supply fell more than $100 billion on the latest reported week. This follows revised money supply figures that showed stronger than average growth in money over the previous few weeks. I am not surprised by the draw down in the money supply in the latest reported week, provided the stronger than average previous results and a mean-reverting tendency in the data. (Note- one area of future research is better timing of the mean-reverting events in money supply). Looking ahead, I am estimated money supply will stay within the range of $10.6 trillion.
Given the latest data, the timing models remain more towards the buy range.
3-month model, -1.1
6-month model, -1.6
1-Year model, -2.2
I have slowed my buying of gold and gold/precious metal stocks but still remain positive on the group. This does not mean I would not necessarily makes purchases in this price range. It is just that the portfolios I manage are overweighted in the group.
Looking at money supply, non-seasonally adjusted money supply fell more than $100 billion on the latest reported week. This follows revised money supply figures that showed stronger than average growth in money over the previous few weeks. I am not surprised by the draw down in the money supply in the latest reported week, provided the stronger than average previous results and a mean-reverting tendency in the data. (Note- one area of future research is better timing of the mean-reverting events in money supply). Looking ahead, I am estimated money supply will stay within the range of $10.6 trillion.
Given the latest data, the timing models remain more towards the buy range.
3-month model, -1.1
6-month model, -1.6
1-Year model, -2.2
I have slowed my buying of gold and gold/precious metal stocks but still remain positive on the group. This does not mean I would not necessarily makes purchases in this price range. It is just that the portfolios I manage are overweighted in the group.
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