Friday, December 21, 2012

Recession Risk/Fiscal Cliff Odds Shifting

After last night's announcement that Congress will not address the Fiscal Cliff before the Christmas break, Intrade traders repriced their views of each. The correlation here still does not appear as tight as you would assume, provided that comments from the talking heads on TV. Traders are giving the odds of a recession at just above 20% and the chances that Congress addresses the debt ceiling before Dec 31 at just 17%.





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