These 10 things come via Nick Colas and Sarah Millar of ConvergEx. Some quick notes after reading this- I really want to test number 8. I always thought that ratio was just an statistic thrown around by gold bugs, but a recession call. Never heard that one. I have some series reservations about number 6 and 10. First, any gold investor would want gold reserves to be limited, as it would provide a floor to pricing. Besides, the author's argument involving supply and story of value holds no water in my opinion. Makes me think the author has no idea that limited supply amongst increased demand causes prices to rise. Lastly, point 10 completely disregards potential scenarios involving changes in golf or aggregate prices. For instance, a substantial rise in the gold price would cover World debts and production, say for instance if gold became a medium exchange of once again.
Bottom Line: Gold is, at least partially, an emerging markets play.
2. On the production side, South Africa has been ousted as the once gold-mine capital of the world: now China and Australia are the leaders on that front, having produced 335 and 270 tons in Q3 2012, respectively. Interestingly, though, China is still a net importer. However, the singular most productive gold mine in the world wasn’t even in either of those countries: it’s the Grasberg Gold Mine in Papua, which produced more than 63 tons (2 million ounces) in 2011. Uzbekistan holds the next largest, Maruntau Gold Mine, which pushed out 56.3 tons (1.8 million ounces).
Bottom line: Gold is one of those rare products that China actually imports.
3. The IMF has the third largest gold reserves in the world, with 2,814.1 tons. That’s more than India (557.7), the Netherlands (612.5), Japan (765.2), China (1,054.1), and France (2,435.4). If the SPDR GLD ETF was including in the count, it would come fifth in the world with 1,289.8 tons. As many might know, the US has the highest total gold reserves both absolutely (8,333.3 tons) and as a percentage of total foreign reserves (75.4%). 25% of the world’s gold is also located right here in the US at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – 540,000 gold bars – though most of it belongs to foreign governments.
Bottom line: Even central banks still see the value in having stores of gold.
4. Though jewelry has traditionally been the more popular end use of consumer demand for gold, making up 78.5% of the total in 2002, in Q3 2012 jewelry made up 59.9% while investment (coins, bars) accounted for the other 40.1%. Though the increase in investment demand seems to lend fuel to the argument that consumers are becoming more interested in gold to shore-up against some kind of disaster, the US in fact still favors jewelry as its end-use for gold: 30.8 tons of US gold demand was for jewelry (75% of the total), while only 10.5 tons were in investment. India, China, and the Middle East also still see the majority of demand in jewelry.
European consumers, on the other hand, are buying up coins and bars almost exclusively. According to the World Gold Council, 91% of European demand in Q3 2012 went to physical investment vehicles. Given the uncertainty surrounding the survival of the euro currency, this rush into investment makes sense. As long as the USD is on solid ground, though, I wouldn’t expect US consumers to dive into gold just yet.
Bottom line: Gold is still the Bling King.
5. That said, ETFs are actually the fasting growing market for gold demand, up 56% over the four quarters ending in Q3 2012. As the general appetite for ETFs continues to ripen, this isn’t particularly shocking. But coupled with the fact that total investment demand fell -10.3% over the same period, it looks like investors are more interested in purchasing market vehicles similar to gold rather than physical gold itself.
Bottom line: Gold fans tend to bad mouth “Paper gold.” They shouldn’t – demand here helps the overall investment story for the yellow metal.
6. For those worried about diminishing resources, here’s some relief: according to the WGC, a total of 171,300 tons has been extracted from the earth since mining began, with about 60% of that being done since 1950. The US Geological Society estimates that about 51,000 are still underground, with the WGC
Bottom line: More gold supply is critical to keeping its status as the ultimate story of value. Absent the discovery of legitimate alchemy, gold supplies will remain tight until we lasso that asteroid.
7. Gold has always held governments to account. In CE 211, Roman Emperor Augustus pinned the gold coin (the “aureus”) at 45 coins to a pound of gold (that makes one aureus worth about $500 in today’s prices). In 312, Emperor Constantine revised that figure to 72 to the pound: 60% deflation in just over 100 years. Granted, the current century’s monetary inflation is a bit more shocking: from $18.92 in 1911 to over $1,700 in 2012, the price of gold has inflated more than 9,000%.
Bottom line: With that kind of track record, gold remains a valuable hedge against government-sponsored inflation.
8. The Dow/Gold ratio (how much gold it would take to buy one share of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) has typically been a good indicator of how bad a given recession might be: when the ratio drops below 1 or 2, things are probably pretty bad. This happened in both 1980 and 2009, but today the ratio sits at 7.6. Admittedly, it’s on a downward trend – but things aren’t looking “apocalyptic” quite yet.
Bottom line: Gold is that rare investment product which is historically uncorrelated to financial assets.
9. Almost 40% of total world gold supply is recycled gold in any given quarter in 2012; it was 38.8% in Q3. Recycled gold, which includes melted-down jewelry, bars, coins, and even dental implants, has become a greater part of world supply, even as “new” gold on the market (from mining) has increased year over year. That’s a relatively good sign as well: investors are willing to liquidate their gold (literally) at today’s prices, providing incremental supply and limiting the chance of a “Bubble.”
Bottom line: Every piece of gold jewelry, ever coin, every ingot ever produced still has value. Can you say the same thing about stocks or bonds? No.
10. If all the gold in the world was given to the US and sold at today’s prices, it would be worth about $10 trillion dollars – and that still wouldn’t be enough to pay off our public debt. In fact, the $10 trillion would only cover 60% of the almost $16.5 trillion we owe. Probably better to just keep the dollar going.
Bottom line: Any chatter about a new “Gold standard” is likely premature.
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