Thursday, September 13, 2012

Traders Edge- 9/13/12- Hurry up and wait

Will they, won't they, and if they do will it matter? Those are the questions and until they are answered at 12:30 when Bernanke et al speak any comments or analysis almost does not matter. I have spoken on this topic considerably over the last couple weeks. In any event, I will keep my comments brief ahead of the meeting results and just provide a few topical updates.

Alpha Natural Resources (ticker ANR) traded down in yesterday's trading, at one point more than 5% versus the prior close. However in a sign of strength, the stock regained some upside momentum and closed above the 50-day moving average.

I continue to believe that the stock will retest and move into the $13 range, meeting the 200-day moving average, and that the fundamentals in the coal industry or at or near the bottom.

As for the currency markets, which i have not commented on in a while, the U.S. dollar is likely to move into the bottom of the 2012 range.


The PowerShares US Dollar Bull Index (ticker UUP) has traded down on an increase in volume. The dollar is trading as if the QE3 were a done deal. The dollar may still go lower, but we could see a dead cat bounce after the Fed announcement.

The dollar's pain has been other currencies gain, as many other world currencies have been extending the rallies that began in July.

For instance, the Euro (as exampled by the Currency  Shares Euro Trust, ticker FXE) popped above its 200-day moving average yesterday.


As for other currencies, we have seen rallies in World currencies on the heels of the declining Euro and now the dollar.

The British Pound- FXB.....




The Australian Dollar- FXA.....
The Canadian Dollar.....
and the Yen

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