Thursday, August 23, 2012

Update on the rally's internal health

I thought I would provide an update on some of the internals I am looking at gauge the health of the rally.

 I stated in previous posts (Here and here) that the cyclical stocks were not participating in the recent rally. Although the tight relationship remains violated (which could just be an issue of start dates and comparisons), the cyclical stocks have begun to outperform non-cyclical stocks starting in late-July/early August.

The trend in the net difference between the count of stocks at new highs versus stocks at new lows is showing a slight divergence from the price trend of the S&P 500. This could suggest a pullback at some point. However, the same divergent trend opened up in late 2010, where the S&P 500 rallied from about 1,2000 to about 1,350..



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