Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Commodities and equities up strongly while dollar and T-bonds swoon.

The headline about says it all. I had some prior commitments this morning and I am surprised to see the magnitude of the gains and losses in both the key indexes and the investments I follow. I run a fairly commodity levered portfolio. You also probably realized I hold exposure in gold and precious metals. Given that and provided the comments from the Atlanta Fed president, Dennis Lockart, who essentially announced there is little chance of QE3 in the near term, I am very surprised to see coal stocks up an average of 2% (looking at the KOL ETF) while gold and silver stocks gaining around 3%. This is while the UUP (the Powershares US dollar bull index) is down more than 70 basis points and the CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (ticker FXE) is gaining about 1%.

Bullishness aside, the volume on the SPY still appears weak. Either the market is discounting a return to economic growth or the stock operators are jamming the shares to get clients out of positions.


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