Thursday, September 19, 2013

Bernanke, the Taper, and Market Effects

Bernanke: Criterion for Paring Bond Purchases Is 'Substantial Improvement in the Labor Market'

This was the headline on Bloomberg running while Bernanke was giving his love-in press conference with paid shills reporters following the Fed's announcement that stunned the market. The lack of any taper, or apparently any tapering until we see marked improvement in the headline figures sent markets in a tizzy.

For instance, the S&P 500, here represented by the S&P 500 SPDR ETF


The SPY made new highs on increasing volume. The break above the previous high, regardless of the volume levels, suggests that equity prices are going higher. The volume just provides support for this case now. With that, I have pulled my short exposure for the time being.

The market rallied while the dollar plunged. Here represented by the UUP or the dollar bull ETF


 The break of the $21.8 level on the UUP puts the lower bound of prices in play. The lower bound here equates to a dollar index value below 80.

Strangely enough, long bond rates did not break their respective 50-day moving average, at least as represented by the Proshares ultrashort 20+ year bond ETF


Although this chart shows the price chart of the TBT, the inverse relationship between price and yield makes this ETF a decent proxy for the trend in bond yields. Although yields fell in yesterday's trading, their inability to break the uptrend is something to watch. I would suspect that yields will break the uptrend in today's trading.

Turning to the gold equities......


The GDX popped after the Fed announcement on astounding volume levels. In my mind, this establishes a new floor in gold equity prices. More so......


Yesterday's move came off an important fibonocci support level on the GDX. If the theory holds, yesterday's move (a significant sign of strength) puts the April sell off into play. Following the Fed announcement, I upped my position in the gold equities.

I had said no matter what happens volatility was going to increase.

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