Achuthan Still Sticks to Recession Call

Despite the rest of the Street calling his prognosis bunk, you have to admire his tenacity. Only time will tell if he correct.

As Achuthan stated to Business Insider.....

So, with U.S. GDP growth at 2.5%, how can we be in recession?

Few realize that GDP data for almost all the early quarters of recent recessions have been revised down dramatically.

Recall that the GDP release on August 28, 2008 – with the economy eight months inside the Great Recession – revised Q2/08 GDP growth to 3.3% from 1.9%, up from 0.9% in Q1/08. But both of those data points, as well as GDP data for the first two quarters of the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions, were revised by 2 to 4 percentage points over time. This is how real-time data often behave during recessions.

Furthermore, yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has occurred only in recessionary context. Q1 2013 read is 3.4%, the second straight quarter below 3.7%.

 

Just to note, my work (employment data, year-over-year GDP, etc.) still continue to point to higher recessionary risks