I would still caution investors to avoid any new purchases or outsized weightings in gold and precious metal stocks. I could also, depending on varying portfolio and risk dynamics, recommend some investors reduce exposure in precious metal stocks outright. This follows a moderation in the money supply figures for the latest week, the subsequent rerating of the forward two-week money supply figures, and a significant increase in the price of gold. After taking these figures into consideration, the timing models I employ are pointing to a mixed forward performance.
The three-month is mildly negative for the latest week, coming in at an estimate of -0.11.
This is the most volatile model I employ to time purchase in precious metal shares. The current reading, in my thinking, suggests that precious metal stocks perform inline with their long-term average.
The 1-year model, in contrast, is registering in at an estimate of 0.34.
The 1-year model is bouncing around the 0-line and earlier in the month registered in -0.74, but has spent most of November essentially at 0.
The anchor of the models, the 6-month model, came in at an estimated 0.71 for week. This measure is above levels I would consider different from zero and could potentially indicate some mild underperformance of gold/precious metal stocks relative to the average return in forward periods.
In my own portfolios, I continue to hold some exposure to precious metal shares, representing gains from prior investments. I remain on the sidelines awaiting a better entry point. In addition, it is my opinion that the gold prices are setting up for lower prices, which I detail here.
The three-month is mildly negative for the latest week, coming in at an estimate of -0.11.
This is the most volatile model I employ to time purchase in precious metal shares. The current reading, in my thinking, suggests that precious metal stocks perform inline with their long-term average.
The 1-year model, in contrast, is registering in at an estimate of 0.34.
The 1-year model is bouncing around the 0-line and earlier in the month registered in -0.74, but has spent most of November essentially at 0.
The anchor of the models, the 6-month model, came in at an estimated 0.71 for week. This measure is above levels I would consider different from zero and could potentially indicate some mild underperformance of gold/precious metal stocks relative to the average return in forward periods.
In my own portfolios, I continue to hold some exposure to precious metal shares, representing gains from prior investments. I remain on the sidelines awaiting a better entry point. In addition, it is my opinion that the gold prices are setting up for lower prices, which I detail here.
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