Monday, December 9, 2013

Mixed Economic Signals- The Trouble With Employment

I have been alluding to the latest employment report still pointing towards a weak economic environment. Here I show you the results. Although the number of jobs openings, according to the establishment data, continues to gain, the second derivative household employment numbers continues to skew highly negative. The following chart shows you the trend in the year-over-year GDP versus the acceleration and deceleration trend in total employment.

What should be apparent is that an accelerated decline in total household employment corresponds with a weak economic environment. More so, there has been very periods since the late 1940's when the employment gains, year-over-year, were negative, and GDP growth was sub 2% and decelerating that future economic growth had turned negative. Will time be any different? We shall see.

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