Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Employment 'Gains' Point To Slower Economy

As I stated in a previous post, the cuts in dividends can serve as a great real-time indicator of the health and growth of the US economy, especially in regards with other real-time data. Employment levels, or more appropriately, the year on year acceleration and deceleration in employment levels, will tend to track the changes in year-over-year economic growth. The latest results for this measure are shown below.

The acceleration and deceleration in employment has not only decelerated but is accelerating to the downside, coming in below the -2 million mark in the latest month. Historically, results such as we see in currently would not only correspond with recessionary conditions in the present but more importantly in the near-term future. This is especially true when GDP growth was at stall speed, a level I define as year-over-year growth of 1.6% or less.

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