I am sitting on a small profit in the gold and gold/precious metal stock investments made a few weeks ago, purchases made when the the timing models dipped into the strong buy zone as the price of gold fell to into the mid-$1,500's per ounce. Now however, I am sitting on my hands and biding my time waiting to see if the market provides another opportunity to buy at lower prices. And yes, I may be quibbling about a few points, but I would much prefer to stay true to discipline.
This is not to say, however, that that current timing indicators are pointing to sells. Far from it. Although the timing models have risen with both the price of gold and due to the timing component, they all remain in buy zones. What is lacking is a definitive sign of strength in the gold markets- be it the Spider Gold ETF (ticker GLD), commodity gold, or the gold/precious metal sector indexes. I am still of an opinion that the price of commodity gold and precious metal stocks may be entering a consolidation phase and may trade sideways, building support for higher prices. I would much rather prefer to enter into purchases into the lower end of this channel, if it does come to fruition.
Turning to the models and as I mentioned above, the rise of the price of gold (along with the timing component) has led to a worsening in the models. This is despite higher monetary supply. That said, the models remain in a buy zone. The charts of the three timing models are presented below, updated for recent monetary supply, gold prices, and gold/precious metal stock index prices.
3-Month Model, -0.84
1-Year Model, -1.6
6-Month Model, -1.2
This is not to say, however, that that current timing indicators are pointing to sells. Far from it. Although the timing models have risen with both the price of gold and due to the timing component, they all remain in buy zones. What is lacking is a definitive sign of strength in the gold markets- be it the Spider Gold ETF (ticker GLD), commodity gold, or the gold/precious metal sector indexes. I am still of an opinion that the price of commodity gold and precious metal stocks may be entering a consolidation phase and may trade sideways, building support for higher prices. I would much rather prefer to enter into purchases into the lower end of this channel, if it does come to fruition.
Turning to the models and as I mentioned above, the rise of the price of gold (along with the timing component) has led to a worsening in the models. This is despite higher monetary supply. That said, the models remain in a buy zone. The charts of the three timing models are presented below, updated for recent monetary supply, gold prices, and gold/precious metal stock index prices.
3-Month Model, -0.84
1-Year Model, -1.6
6-Month Model, -1.2
No comments:
Post a Comment