I found last week's column from John Hussman particularly insightful. You can disagree with the conclusion, but his analysis is always top notch. This is one to archive. A portion of the column can be found below.
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Is the economy at an inflection point, or are we
simply in the calm before the storm? Though economic reports have been
relatively muted on balance, they have also come in somewhat above
expectations in recent weeks – particularly the advance estimate of
third quarter GDP at 2%, and October non-farm payrolls at 171,000. The
lack of clear deterioration in recent reports begs the question of
whether this is enough to dispose of any concern about recession, and
instead look forward to continued positive – if slow – economic
progress.
The answer to that question largely depends on how
one draws inferences from economic data. The consensus of Wall Street
economists, as well as the broader economic consensus, has never
successfully identified a U.S. recession until well after it has begun.
I believe that much of the reason is that economists tend to interpret
reports one-by-one as what I’ve called a “stream of anecdotes.” From
that perspective, a series of positive anecdotes, such as the reports
we’ve recently seen on GDP and non-farm payrolls, encourages views that
the economic landscape is all clear.
The problem is that the stream of anecdotes
approach places no structure on the data – there is no analysis of
leading/lagging or upstream/downstream relationships, no examination of
the frequency and size of revisions to the data – particularly around
economic turning points – and no attempt to place the data points into a
larger “gestalt” that captures relationships between dozens of other
economic reports. Moreover, it's natural for analysts to gauge “trends”
by comparing recent reports to past data, with a look-back horizon
somewhere in the range of 13-26 weeks. If analysts then form
expectations by extrapolating recent surprises, it then becomes very
easy to produce regular “cycles” of economic surprises. We’ve been able
to generate that phenomenon even using randomly generated data. In
practice, the cycle of economic “surprises” tends to run about 44-weeks
in U.S. data (see The Data Generating Process).
As it happens, much to the chagrin of conspiracy theorists, we would
expect the present cycle to peak out roughly the week of the election. ........
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