Thursday, October 18, 2012

Quick update on natural gas in storage

Just a quick update on natural gas storage levels. If you are asking, I watch and track natural gas due to the fuel being the primary substitute for coal. As storage levels converge on the average, along with the expectations there of, the price of natural gas will rise, alleviating the substitute effect and increasing the potential demand for coal. The latest natural gas in storage (3,776 Bcf) increased from the week ago levels. However, the weekly storage build rate of 51 Bcf is below the average, resulting in a further convergence.

Natural gas in storage relative to the 5-year average


That said, the rate of the convergence continues to slow.....

12-week slope of the difference between natural gas in storage and the 5-year average


I continue to believe that the largest factor that will contribute to an accelerated contraction of storage levels versus the average will be winter temperatures.








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