Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Long-term value portfolio update

Here is the latest update on my long-term value model portfolio. As a reminder, the long-term value model portfolio is constructed using my a technical timing indicator as a base to find potential investments. I initially touched upon the model portfolio and the long-term technical indicator here. A public profile of the model can also be found via Marketocracy here.

Since inception earlier this year, the model portfolio is modestly underperforming the S&P 500. Since the beginning of July, the model portfolio is up 6.34% vs. a gain of 7.4% on the market. The performance gap has closed considerably since mid-July, when the gap hovered around a 5 percentage point deficit. As stated previously, I would expect the model to underperform the market in the short-term, considering the portfolio is composed mainly of stocks that had been beaten down.

graph of fund vs. market indexes


Currently, the model portfolio is more heavily weighted towards Industrial companies followed by a heavy weighting in consumer discretionary stocks.  The largest holding in the model portfolio is Ann Inc at 3.2% of the portfolio followed by Stillwater Mining at 3.15% and Foster Wheeler at 3.1%. The largest underperformer is Walter Energy with a 15% loss since inception. I will reduce holdings once they break 20% to the downside.

pie chart

Color Name Portion
Consumer Discretionary 17%
Consumer Staples 5%
Energy 13%
Financials 5%
Health Care 12%
Industrials 22%
Information Technology 15%
Materials 10%
Telecommunications 2%




The portfolio's BETA is currently 0.91 and has a R-squared with the market of 0.47. These figures and the overall performance derive an alpha over 30%. One note of caution of these statistics, they are calculated over a short-time period will likely fluctuate going forward.

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