Wednesday, October 9, 2013

The First Bank of the United States

Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture posted a great read concerning the history of the First Bank of the United States by Ralph Dillion.

The President, Directors and Company, of the Bank of the United States, or the First Bank of the United States, as it is more commonly known, was chartered for a term of twenty years, by the United States Congress on February 25, 1791. The bank was part of Alexander Hamilton’s plan for stabilizing and improving the nation’s credit by establishing a central bank, a mint, and introducing excise taxes.

The Bank of the United States was to have $10 million in capital, of which $2 million would be subscribed by the government. The $8 million in shares sold to the public (20,000 shares at $400) were quickly purchased and the price of the stock initially rose to $600. Of the first $8 million in shares that were sold, one quarter had to be paid in gold or silver. The rest could be paid in bonds, scrip, etc. Shares sold for $400, and to understand how much money this was by today’s standard, the per capita income in the United States in 1791 was only $50 (vs. over $50,000 today), so one share of stock cost the equivalent of $400,000 in today’s dollars, making Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock cheap by comparison.

Hamilton modeled the Bank of the United States on the Bank of England. The bank could be a depository for collected taxes, make short-term loans to the government, and could serve as a holding site for incoming and outgoing money. Nevertheless, Hamilton saw the main goal of the bank as a way of promoting commercial and private interests by making sound loans to the private sector, and most of its activities were commercial, not public.

The rest can be read after the jump


Volume Off the High- Oct. 8 Trading Day Edition

I wonder if the trend has changed.......
























High Volume High- Oct. 8 Trading Day Edition

The world seems more balanced now with the S&P 500 breaking the 50 day moving average and the swing point on higher volume while demand wanes and the number of new high volumes highs is far less than the declining names.





The Paradox of the Markets- We Serve Others To Serve Our Own Self-Interest, Amanda Billyrock

There is a simple brilliance in her speech, all leading to the conclusion that I think many fail to realize when it comes to markets.... markers in everything.

The Stars Align- Price/Volume Heat Map Oct. 8

The stars apparently aligned in trading yesterday, and although I still think that the equity markets will rally hard once the children in Washington come to a deal I also think that 200 day moving average may now be in play, considering that the 50 day moving average and previous swing point on the S&P 500 has been broken on higher-than-average volume. The market tracked down by about 120 basis points on declining values across all sectors sans staples and utilities.


As you would expect, the supply ruled the day in yesterday's trading. Supply was even weak in the sectors that performed relatively well. My predominant belief is that most of the downside moves in equity prices have been mainly noise related to the wrangling in Washington. However, I have seem some indications that maybe this is not the case. More on this later.







All That Glitters Remains In An Accumualation Phase

Just a quick update on my gold/precious metal equity timing models. First, the wide price spread, high volume jump in prices that occurred back on Sept. following the Fed's non-taper event has been followed by a continued sell off in both gold and gold stocks. This is despite inflation expectations that have remained locked within a range, an indication that the Fed will continue to print money (did you have any doubt), and an acceleration in money supply growth. The latter has occurred, at least in my estimation, because of seasonal fluctuations.

Although I have taken a hit after upping my gold stock exposure following the Fed's non-event, I am somewhat comforted by the fact that the sell off has occurred on decelerating volume levels. This suggests that the selling pressure is abating, and if traders cannot push something down.....

With that, the timing models, shown below, remain in an accumulation phase while the risk gauge remains positive.

6 Month Model, current results -0.75 versus -0.3 one month ago


1 Year Model- -1.18 versus -1


 2 Year Model- -1.8 versus -1.7




Risk (slope) coefficient- in a down trend but remains positive.


Nobody Wants to Admit that the Country is Bankrupt- Ron Paul