Thursday, August 8, 2013

Break That Trading Slump


By Ross Heart at See It Market

Ever been in a slump? A bad one – a really bad one? If you’ve invested in the markets for an extended period of time, you likely have had a trading slump or two. There’s no way around it and despite its discomfort, trading slumps are an inevitable component of investing. Eventually everybody gets stung and regardless the systems, process, and disciplines that traders (or investors) follow, strategies are not infallible, and stretches will invariably pop-up out of nowhere where you can’t seem to buy a hit… the dreaded trading slump.
 
Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging ~ Henry Aaron

If you’ve found  yourself in this situation the first thing you need to do is acknowledge the trading slump, and immediately determine the overriding goal is to simply get through it as unscathed as possible.

Second, try to define the nature of the slump you’re currently in. Are you missing opportunities? Are current positions not working and giving you fits? Do you find yourself missing major moves? Are you deviating from your normal processes? Or are you the proverbial deer in the headlights and too frozen to act?

Every situation (and person) is different, but once you’ve acknowledged the trading slump and defined its nature, I would suggest not disengaging from the markets. As tough as this may be, try to keep yourself involved, but definitely try not to press. Sidenote: I would overwhelmingly encourage you to disengage from individuals and commentary that appear to be endlessly right about everything. These people add nothing more than frustration, and frankly, they may likely struggle the most when tides turn.

Staying involved and abreast of the markets, however, does not mean taking a couple extra hours of batting practice in the cage. Trading slumps are mental, so try to increase breaks, walks, naps, exercise and other stress reducers in an effort to allow your inner pressures to subside and your subconscious mind to strengthen. Re-developing the confidence and level-headedness needed to deal with volatile markets on a day-in day-out basis will likely take some time. Remember that patience is your friend.

Start to go back and examine stretches in a trading journal where you ripped the cover off the ball, and try to recapture your state of mind. Re-read classic investing books and understand how and why Hall-of-Fame investors have gotten to where they are. An over-riding and underlying message that you’ll likely reacquaint yourself with is that frankly, there are no easy answers.

Hank Aaron’s quote may not translate perfectly to investing – you don’t receive an unlimited number of at bats but you can wait much, much longer for the really fat pitch. The important message though is that slumps are merely a natural part of the game. Ironman Cal Ripken Jr. once played on a team that started a season 0-21, and also endured a painful 1992 season, in which he batted .190 over a 73-game homer-less streak. I’m guessing the key for Ripken was similar to a slumping investor – show up every day and grind it out with that underlining goal of merely getting through.

Gold Below $1,000- Possibly According to Canada's Leading Trade Economist

The argument in the video below hinges upon a recovery in the economy. I have already shown that economic growth and gold prices show no causation let along correlation. That aside, I have doubts that the economy is recovering.

Henry Blodget Doesn't Understand Economics or Why Learning Economics is Important

This article was originally posted at the Economics Policy Journal. I don't mean to attack Blodget in any way, but the article is great read in that it highlights why understanding economics is important.

Business Insider's Henry Blodget is at it again. He is out with an article that shows he really has no clue as to how the economy works. It starts with the headline to the article, Sorry, It's Not A 'Law Of Capitalism' That You Pay Your Employees As Little As Possible.

What exactly does he mean by this?Anyone with a basic economics 101 understanding should get that supply and demand determines wages. Any businessman can pay employees more than the going wage, if he so chooses, but that is simply a gift. Blodget's headline should really read, It's Not a 'Law of Capitalism' that Employers Can't Give Out Gifts to Their Employees.   

And this is true. Employers can give above market wages, but why? If it is about gift giving, why shouldn't employees work below the market wage, as a gift to employers? It's really wacky thinking to start advocating non-market wages in any direction. Exchanges are done, including work/wage exchanges, when two parties are willing to make the exchange. Adding gift giving is simply bizarre.

Blodget then throws this doozie into his column:

If average Americans don't get paid living wages, they can't spend much money buying products and services. And when average Americans can't buy products and services, the companies that sell products and services to average Americans can't grow. So the profit obsession of America's big companies is, ironically, hurting their ability to accelerate revenue growth.
I have discussed this bizarre notion of the "living wage" before.  What does Blodget think, that those not earning what Blodget deems a living wage, are dead, don't eat, don't have a place to sleep, don't have cell phones? The use of the term "living wage" is a con that distorts reality.

As for the nonsense that when "average Americans can't buy products and services, the companies that sell products and services to average Americans can't grow,"  Blodget shows that he simply doesn't believe in supply and demand. There can be know general glut of goods, prices would simply fall so that markets clear. It's Say's Law.

Murray Rothbard explained what the Blodget's of the world are up to in their concern about overproduction. Their usual solution to so-called overproduction is government spending rather than Blodget's call for businesses to overpay their workers, but the logic in understanding the fallacy is the same:
 Essentially Say's law is a stern and proper response to the various economic ignoramuses as well as self-seekers who, in every economic recession or crisis, begin to complain loudly about the terrible problem of general "overproduction" or, in the common language of Say's day, a "general glut" of goods on the market. "Overproduction" means production in excess of consumption: that is, production is too great in general compared to consumption, and hence products cannot be sold in the market. If production is too large in relation to consumption, then obviously this is a problem of what is now called "market failure," a failure which must be compensated by the intervention of government.[...]

Say understandably reacted in horror to this analysis and to the prescription. In the first place, he pointed out, the wants of man are unlimited, and will continue to be until we achieve genuine general superabundance — a world marked by the prices of all goods and services falling to zero. But at that point there would be no problem of finding consumer demand, or, indeed, any economic problem at all. There would be no need to produce, to work, or to worry about accumulating capital, and we would all be in the Garden of Eden.[..]

Since, apart from the Garden of Eden, production always falls short of man's wants, this means that there is no need to worry about any lack of consumption. The problem that limits wealth and living standards is a deficiency of production. On the market, Say points out, producers exchange their products for money and they use the money to buy the products of others. That is the essence of the exchange, or market, economy. Therefore the supply of one good constitutes, at bottom, the demand for other goods. Consumption demand is simply the embodiment of the supply of other products, whose owners are seeking to purchase the products in question. Far better to have demand emerging from the supply of other products, as on the free market, than for the government to stimulate consumer demand without any corresponding production.

For the government to stimulate consumption by itself "is no benefit to commerce; for the difficulty lies in supplying the means, not in stimulating the desire for consumption; and we have seen that production alone, furnishes the mean[...] 
Those who complain about overproduction or underconsumption rarely talk in terms of price, yet these concepts are virtually meaningless if the price system is not always held in mind. The question should always be: production or sales at what price! Demand or consumption at what price! There is never any genuine unsold surplus, or "glut," whether specific or general over the whole economy, if prices are free to fall to clear the market and eliminate the surplus.
Bottom line: Blodget really doesn't understand how a free market economy works. This leads him to become some kind of bizarre advocate of non-market wages. He, in other words, is a socialist thinker, who has a nutty view that wages should be determined with the "good of the society" in mind rather than by markets. Damn, Hayek's view of prices as signals, Blodget has better prices in his own mind!

Blodget continues:
Obviously, the folks who own and run America's big corporations want to do as well as they can for themselves. But the key point is this:

It is not a law that they pay their employees as little as possible.

It is a choice.

It is a choice made by senior managers and owners who want to keep the highest possible percentage of a company's wealth for themselves.

It is, in other words, a selfish choice.
Ah yes, the problem of selfishness. I'll let Ludwig von Mises and Adam Smith slap this one down. In Socialism, Mises wrote:
That everyone lives and wishes to live primarily for himself does not disturb social life but promotes it, for the higher fulfillment of individual's life is possible only in and through society
Smith wrote:
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our necessities but of their advantages.
---
The natural effort of every individual to better his own condition...is so powerful, that it is alone, and without any assistance, not only capable of carrying on the society to wealth and prosperity, but of surmounting a hundred impertinent obstructions with which the folly of human laws too often encumbers its operations.
---
Every individual... neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it... he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.
Does Blodget really want to see a world that doesn't run on selfishness, where willy nilly people just pass things out to others? That market prices should be tossed aside?  Hey Henry, let's get started on this, send me a check any time. You got Bezos millions, I didn't.

For Blodget to make the proposals he does, he can't possibly understand basic economics. He is thinking like a socialist. I will quote Blodget himself as to the overall problems with his thinking:
These days, if you suggest that great companies should serve several constituencies (customers, employees, and shareholders) and that American companies should share more of their wealth with the people of [sic] generate it (employees), you get called a "socialist." You get called a "liberal." You get told that you "don't understand economics." You get accused of promoting "wealth confiscation." You get told that, in America, people get paid exactly what they deserve to get paid: Anyone who wants to get paid more should go out and "start their own company" or "demand a raise" or "get a better job."
In other words, you get told that anyone who suggests that great companies should share the value they create with all three constituencies instead of just lining the pockets of shareholders is an idiot.

Well said, Henry.

China's Staggering Migration Plans

The numbers here, as presented are staggering. My guess is that the Chinese will fail on their grand experiment of social engineering. Humanity's capacity to plan and organize, albeit great, does have limits. The simple fact remains that the unplanned circumstance and chaos theory can and will upend any carefully well laid plan. 


Volume Off the High- 8/7 Trading Day Edition

Outside of earnings related names, solar stocks took it on the chin. This is likely an industry to watch.

















High Volume High- 8/7 Trading Day Edition

A lot of names gaining in price considering the downtrodden market action overall. Most are earnings related.


















S&P 500 Price/Volume Heat Map- 8/7 Trading Day Edition

A third day of market weakness, as the S&P 500 fell in value by about 40 basis points. Except for the materials sector, which traded flat on price basis, the more cyclical sectors all traded down on the day.


Although the utilities sector gained the most on a pure price basis, the supply/demand dynamics for the group was neutral. The best supply/demand dynamics occurred in the telecom group, a multi-day occurrence for sector's names. On the negative side, the discretionary, staples, energy, and financial sectors all experienced a greater influx of supply.