Quick break

I am traveling with no access to a computer. Will be back on Saturday.

It’s wrong. And if that worries you, you need to get out of.....

Found at wired.com

Knowledge changes around us all the time. Yet we don’t always have the most up-to-date facts. This is true, I’d argue, even in an age of instant and massive information. Despite our unprecedented ability to rapidly learn new things and crowdfix mistakes, Knowledge and its sinister twin Error continue to propagate in complex and intriguing ways. Errors persist among us for far longer than they should and even when there is more accurate knowledge elsewhere. Newer knowledge does not spread as fast as it should and weaves its way unevenly throughout society.

The problem isn’t just epistemological – it can have serious consequences. Doctors might not realize there is a newer and better treatment. Teachers might not have the most current materials. Parents might not have the latest child-rearing techniques. Entire fields of science invest time, money, and other resources recapitulating the findings of others due to their ignorance of other fields’ advances.
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My thoughts- You are going to be wrong. Live with it. Accept it. But always search for and accept the truth.

Solar grand minimum- colder climate to follow

 There is significant debate on both sides of this issue. I am going to have to default to experts as to which way the sun's output to turn. However, it is my belief (which is based on anecdotal evidence, other observations, a general understanding of astronomy) that an extended solar minimum will lead to lower global temperatures.

Solar maximum? Oh, you just missed it

WAITING for solar fireworks to reach a grand finale next year? Um, sorry, looks like you already missed them. Structures in the sun's corona indicate that the peak in our star's latest cycle of activity has been and gone, at least in its northern hemisphere.

The southern hemisphere, meanwhile, is on a sluggish rise to solar maximum and may not hit its peak until 2014.

This bizarre asymmetry strengthens a theory that has been bubbling among sun watchers for the past few years: our star is headed for hibernation. Having the sun's outbursts turned off for a while would provide a better baseline for studying how they influence Earth's climate.

Observations of magnetic footprints called sunspots revealed in the 1800s that the sun moves through a roughly 11-year cycle of activity. Around a solar maximum, the star ramps up production of sunspots, flares and ejections of plasma. During a solar minimum, things quieten down.

Following an unexpectedly deep minimum from 2008 to 2010, solar physicists predicted a weak maximum for 2013. These days, though, sunspots aren't the only tools for charting the solar cycle. Richard Altrock of the US Air Force Research Laboratory in New Mexico has been studying coronal structures called polar crown prominences, which stem from magnetic rumblings on the sun's surface.

These gaseous filaments form at mid-latitudes at the beginning of a solar cycle. As it progresses they drift polewards, and when they reach 76 degrees latitude, a solar maximum has arrived. Soon afterwards the prominences disappear, only to form again during the next cycle.

Based on the movements of this cycle's prominences, Altrock says that an especially weak solar maximum took place in the sun's northern hemisphere around July last year (arxiv.org/abs/1209.2969).

Bernhard Fleck, project scientist for NASA's and the European Space Agency's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, calls the paper solid work, but adds that even if we missed the northern maximum, the southern hemisphere is still expected to put on a show.

According to Altrock, the southern prominences are still on the move, but slowly. If they continue at the current rate, he says, the south will not reach its maximum until February 2014.

Such a large asymmetry between hemispheres could be a sign of big changes ahead, says Steven Tobias, a mathematician at the University of Leeds, UK, who models what drives the sun's magnetic field. According to his models, such a situation precedes an extended quiet phase called a grand minimum. "Changes in symmetry are more indicative of going into a grand minimum than the strength of the cycle," he says.

Grand minima can last for decades. The previous one took place between 1645 and 1715, and has been linked to the little ice age in Europe. A new one might also cause localised cold periods. Climate scientists might see a silver lining to being plunged into a deep freeze: a grand minimum offers ideal conditions for testing the effects of solar variability on Earth's climate (see "Our star's subtle influence").

But Michael Proctor, a solar physicist at the University of Cambridge, is not convinced that this will happen. "This present cycle is similar to the weak one that ended in 1913, and that was followed by a strong cycle," he says.

Only time will tell.                   

Natural gas injection rates moderating

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this morning that natural gas in storage totaled 3,576 Bcf, representing an injection rate of 80 Bcf versus last week's storage level of 3,496 Bcf. This compares to the 5-year average of 3,354 Bcf and an injection rate of 83 Bcf. The street was looking for an injection of 76 Bcf. I have updated the historical differential between current storage levels and the five-year average below.



The differential between current storage levels and the five-year average appear to be moderating, as the 12 week slope of the storage level differential has turned upward.

 

Although I will not know conclusively for some time, as the consumption and production figures are only posted with a lag by the EIA, it is my belief that the reasoning behind the rate of decline is largely due to a reduction in demand. The demand for natural gas has likely slowed with the moderation in the late Summer/early Fall temperatures amongst the backdrop of slow economic growth. Barring a return to more normal winter weather patterns and if this trend persists, it will be difficult for natural gas storage levels to achieve parity with the running average.

Maple syrup and seven other scare commodities

I knew of the scarcity of many of the assets on this list, but maple syrup. Breakfast is never going to be the same again. All joking aside, scarcity is what economics is all about and investment opportunities evolve around scarcity and people's attempts to get around it. The list is found here at Minyanville.

But maple syrup...

Behavioral finance- a simple list

A list of simple explanation of the behavioral bias that affect all of our investment decision making. this comes via the Harvard Business Review.

Behavioral finance theories are in stark contrast to the standard normal theories of rational expectations. If you are interested, start with prospect theory. You won't disappointed.